COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FUZZY TIME SERIES METHOD WITH FUZZY TIME SERIES MARKOV CHAIN ON RAINFALL FORECAST IN SOUTH KALIMANTAN

Abstract

Abstract

Time series data (TS) is a type of data that is collected according to the order of time within a certain time span. Time Series data analysis is one of the statistical procedures applied to predict the probability structure of future conditions for decision making. FTS (FTS) is a data forecasting method that uses fuzzy principles as its basis. Forecasting systems with FTS capture patterns from past data and then use them to project future data. FTS Markov Chain is a new concept that was first proposed by Tsaur, in his research to analyze the accuracy of the prediction of the Taiwan currency exchange rate with the US dollar. In his research, Tsaur combines the FTS method with Markov Chain, The merger aims to obtain the greatest probability using a transition probability matrix. The results obtained from this research are tests with the best number of presentation values ​​from FTS Markov Chain with FTS, resulting in different accuracy values ​​depending on the two methods. The best accuracy performance is obtained by the Markov Chain FTS method with an error value of 1.6% and an accuracy value of 98.4% and for FTS with an error value of 7.4% and an accuracy value of 92.6%. produce different accuracy values ​​depending on the two methods. The best accuracy performance is obtained by the Markov Chain FTS method with an error value of 1.6% and an accuracy value of 98.4% and for FTS with an error value of 7.4% and an accuracy value of 92.6%. produce different accuracy values ​​depending on the two methods. The best accuracy performance is obtained by the Markov Chain FTS method with an error value of 1.6% and an accuracy value of 98.4% and for FTS with an error value of 7.4% and an accuracy value of 92.6%.